Historical Analogues That Can Inform AI Governance is a RAND research report (RRA3408-1) by Michael J. D. Vermeer, published August 21, 2024. It draws on the governance histories of prior dual-use, general-purpose, and rapidly-evolving technologies to inform the design of AI governance.
Summary of argument
Vermeer's framework holds that AI governance is in an early-formation phase and that the design choices made now will be path-dependent. Examining how earlier dual-use, general-purpose, and rapidly-evolving technologies were governed is presented as a source of both templates and cautionary tales. The report surveys analogues drawn from nuclear technology, the internet, biotechnology, chemical weapons, financial systems, aviation, and pharmaceuticals.
Reception and use as a methodological reference
The report is a detailed treatment of analogical reasoning as a method in AI governance, and it serves as a reference point for several other analogical-reasoning works and policy documents.
The AI Grand Bargain — Ben Buchanan and Tantum Collins (Foreign Affairs, October 2025) applies analogies to American railroads, the Manhattan Project, and Operation Warp Speed, drawing on the same analogical-reasoning tradition that Vermeer sets out in methodological terms. Preemption, Federalism, and the Regulation of Emerging Technologies — Roger Hanshaw (ABA NR&E, Summer 2025) develops an environmental-law analogy from within that tradition. America's AI Action Plan invokes nuclear and Cold War analogies, for which Vermeer supplies the underlying methodology. Vermeer's nuclear-weapons analogue chapter is a foundational reference for AI and National Security, and his treatment of chemical-weapons and biotech export-control regimes is analogous to the questions raised in Export Controls (AI). The report also serves as an institutional reference for RAND Corporation as a voice on AI governance methodology and for its author, Michael J D Vermeer (planned).
Provenance
Authored by Michael J. D. Vermeer and published by RAND as Research Report RRA3408-1, dated August 21, 2024.
Relationships
- supports: AI Safety Cases and Frameworks (methodological anchor), The AI Grand Bargain — Ben Buchanan and Tantum Collins (Foreign Affairs, October 2025) (companion analogical work), Preemption, Federalism, and the Regulation of Emerging Technologies — Roger Hanshaw (ABA NR&E, Summer 2025)
- related: America's AI Action Plan, AI and National Security, Export Controls (AI), RAND Corporation, Michael J D Vermeer (planned)
- instance-of: AI Governance (umbrella)