| Field | Value | |
|---|---|---|
| Type | Independent research firm (subscription research plus public essays) | |
| Founded | ~2020 | |
| Founder / principal analyst | [[dylan-patel | Dylan Patel]] |
| Known for | Public source on the AI compute supply chain: TSMC CoWoS capacity, HBM allocations, Huawei Ascend manufacturing, Nvidia hyperscaler allocations, data-center power, and chip export-control mechanics |
SemiAnalysis is an independent research firm founded around 2020 by Dylan Patel that publishes quantitative analysis of the AI compute supply chain. It produces figures on CoWoS substrate supply, HBM stack allocations, advanced node yields, and data-center power curves that are cited across the AI-policy community.
Overview
SemiAnalysis focuses on the quantitative AI compute supply chain. Where policy analysts such as CSIS and RAND produce governance-facing readings of the chip landscape, and where CSET writes on strategic implications, SemiAnalysis publishes the underlying numbers — CoWoS substrate supply, HBM stack allocations, advanced node yields, and data-center power curves — that the policy community cites.
The firm operates a subscription research product, consisting of technical deep-dives aimed mostly at institutional investors, hyperscaler strategy teams, and policy institutions, alongside free public essays and a social-media and podcast presence.
Research focus areas
SemiAnalysis's output spans the compute supply chain:
- Semiconductor logic. TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel Foundry; node capability; capacity
- Memory. SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung Semiconductor; HBM stacks and allocation
- Advanced packaging. TSMC CoWoS, SoIC; packaging as the AI bottleneck
- Foundry and lithography. ASML EUV, the semiconductor equipment chain
- China compute. Huawei Ascend yield and unit economics; SMIC node capability; chip-smuggling flows
- Hyperscaler capex. Nvidia allocations to Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, xAI
- Data-center power. Grid constraints as the binding frontier training constraint by 2027–28
Two of its publications are summarized in the compute pages: an analysis of advanced-packaging and memory chokepoints covering CoWoS and HBM (Source: Raw Sources/SemiAnalysis - CoWoS and HBM Supply Chain.md), and an analysis of Huawei's AI accelerator yield economics and the export-controls implications of the Ascend production ramp (Source: Raw Sources/SemiAnalysis - Huawei Ascend Production Ramp.md).
Positions
Across its publications, SemiAnalysis has advanced several recurring positions:
- Export controls work, imperfectly. It has repeatedly argued that US controls have meaningfully constrained Chinese compute while documenting significant leakage.
- Compute is the governance surface. Its analysis aligns with the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) and Heim compute-governance school, approached from semiconductor-industry mechanics.
- Skeptical of China-is-years-behind narratives. Its Ascend and DeepSeek analyses have pushed back on claims of structural Chinese uncompetitiveness.
- Power is the binding constraint. It argues that electricity and grid interconnect, rather than chips, become the binding constraint on frontier training by 2027–28.
Influence and funding
SemiAnalysis's quantitative output is cited by US policy institutions (Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), RAND Corporation, Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET)), by investors and hyperscalers, in government briefings (including congressional testimony and BIS-facing analysis), and in academic AI-compute research (for example, Epoch AI cross-references).
The firm is funded by subscribers rather than by foundations, which distinguishes it from think-tank-style compute analysts and shapes both its independence and its access to industry sources.
Relationships
- related: Dylan Patel — founder and principal analyst
- related: (Source: Raw Sources/SemiAnalysis - CoWoS and HBM Supply Chain.md), (Source: Raw Sources/SemiAnalysis - Huawei Ascend Production Ramp.md) — ingested publications
- related: Semiconductor Supply Chain — the concept page SemiAnalysis most directly shapes
- related: Export Controls (AI), Compute Governance, AI Race Dynamics
- related: Lennart Heim, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), RAND Corporation, Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) — adjacent compute/policy voices (different institutional forms)
- related: DeepSeek, Huawei — Ascend AI Accelerators, Nvidia & TSMC — AI Compute Infrastructure, ASML — EUV Lithography Monopoly, SK Hynix — HBM Leader, Micron Technology, Samsung Semiconductor, SMIC — Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, AMD — Advanced Micro Devices — subjects of SemiAnalysis reporting
Sources
- (Source: Raw Sources/SemiAnalysis - CoWoS and HBM Supply Chain.md)
- (Source: Raw Sources/SemiAnalysis - Huawei Ascend Production Ramp.md)